The Bulgaria Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's mining industry.

2010 will be a year of stagnation in Bulgaria as the economy staggers towards an export-led return to growth. Bulgaria's economy shrank by 5.1% in 2009 and forecasts for growth this year are modest at around 1%. The country's mining industry will mirror the performance of the economy, as it emerges from an 11.2% contraction in 2009 to grow by 1.4% in 2010 to be worth BGN1.18bn (US$760mn). The government will hope that the country's mining industry will do its part in lifting exports in 2010, however. Positive indicators for the sector include an upward move in global prices for key commodities such as gold, copper, lead and zinc, while residential construction in Bulgaria is also beginning to pick up, according to the Bulgarian Chamber of Mining and Geology.

Our cautiously positive outlook is reflected by Bulgarias Maritsa East Mines which is aiming to produce 26mn tonnes of coal in 2010 and hopes to report a BGN7.4mn (US$5.4mn) profit by the end of the year, before ramping up production up to 30mn tonnes in 2011. Maritsa launched a BGN96mn (US$70.1) investment plan for 2010 to purchase new mining equipment, which will help it achieve its production targets. The company was forced to slash its BGN110mn investment plan for 2009 by around half, however, as a result of the global economic crisis. Nonetheless, the company reported a BGN6.5mn profit for the six months to November 2009 after it managed to cut BGN23mn in liabilities owed to suppliers.

Meanwhile, in a blow to foreign investment in the country, Canadian mining firm, Dundee Precious Metals plans for a new processing plant at its Chelopech gold site in Bulgaria were finally torpedoed in May 2010 when the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria upheld a decision to revoke its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) resolution issued by the government. The EIA was issued in 2008 but was reportedly challenged because of inaccuracies in defining impacted communities, and uncertainties relating to processing technology. However, the company said that the decision will not impede an expansion to 2mn tonnes per year that is under way at the site. Dundee was also successful in procuring a Commercial Discovery Certificate for its Krumovgrad gold deposit in September 2009. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development may provide Bulgarias largest zinc smelter KCM a EUR47mn (US$63.86mn) loan for a project to reconstruct and modernise its lead production line and upgrade its zinc process. The plans constitute the first of two stages in the modernisation of KCMs operations and the total project cost comes to EUR94mn (US$127.71mn). The project will increase yields, reduce energy consumption, reduce the need for maintenance and decrease a number of production costs.

However, although fiscal austerity measures are being put into place across Europe, Bulgaria may be particularly vulnerable in 2010 as almost a third of its banking sector is owned by Greek financial entities. The debt crisis in Greece has therefore led to a decline in investor confidence for Bulgaria, with some reports that investors are holding off the country until it is clear that it will post economic growth this year and is sufficiently insulated from the Greek economic crisis. As the economy rebounds, however, BMI believes that growth in Bulgarias mining industry will accelerate to 6.5% in 2011 to be worth BGN1.29bn (US$820mn). Growth levels will be maintained at 6.7% in 2012 before edging down to just below 6% in the subsequent two years. By 2014, the sector will be growing by 5.8% and will be valued at BGN1.66bn (US$1.07bn).

Key Topics Covered:

• SWOT Analysis
• Industry Trends And Developments
• Table: Mines In Bulgaria
• Regulatory Structure And Developments
• Key Projects
• Business Environment
• Europe Mining Business Environment Ratings
• Table: BMIs Legal Framework Ratings
• Table: Bulgarias Employment Indicators
• Table: Bulgarias Demographic Indicators
• Commodities Forecast Nickel To Average US$22,000/tonne In 2010
• Table: BMI Nickel Forecast
• Table: Nickel
• Aluminium Downside Risks To Average US$2,100/tonne In 2010
• Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast
• Table: Aluminium
• Commodities Forecast Gold To Average US$1,150/oz In 2010
• Table: BMI Gold Forecast
• Table: Gold, 1999-2009 (tonnes)
• Table: BMI Copper Forecast
• Table: Copper
• Table: Bulgarias Mining Industry, 2007-2014
• Competitive Landscape
• Table: Key Players In Bulgarias Mining Industry
• Company Monitor
• Global Assumptions Q310
• Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
• Table: GDP Growth, Inflation, Interest Rates And Exchange Rates, 2008-2014
• Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 (% y-o-y)
• Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth, 2009-2012 (% y-o-y)

Companies Mentioned:

• Asarel Medet
• Chelopech Mining

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0f4dc9/bulgaria_mining_re